SAQA All qualifications and part qualifications registered on the National Qualifications Framework are public property. Thus the only payment that can be made for them is for service and reproduction. It is illegal to sell this material for profit. If the material is reproduced or quoted, the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) should be acknowledged as the source.
SOUTH AFRICAN QUALIFICATIONS AUTHORITY 
REGISTERED UNIT STANDARD: 

Conduct demand forecasting and develop supply and capacity plans to meet demand 
SAQA US ID UNIT STANDARD TITLE
336720  Conduct demand forecasting and develop supply and capacity plans to meet demand 
ORIGINATOR
SGB Procurement, Logistics and Supply Chain Mngt 
PRIMARY OR DELEGATED QUALITY ASSURANCE FUNCTIONARY
-  
FIELD SUBFIELD
Field 03 - Business, Commerce and Management Studies Procurement 
ABET BAND UNIT STANDARD TYPE PRE-2009 NQF LEVEL NQF LEVEL CREDITS
Undefined  Regular  Level 6  Level TBA: Pre-2009 was L6 
REGISTRATION STATUS REGISTRATION START DATE REGISTRATION END DATE SAQA DECISION NUMBER
Reregistered  2018-07-01  2023-06-30  SAQA 06120/18 
LAST DATE FOR ENROLMENT LAST DATE FOR ACHIEVEMENT
2024-06-30   2027-06-30  

In all of the tables in this document, both the pre-2009 NQF Level and the NQF Level is shown. In the text (purpose statements, qualification rules, etc), any references to NQF Levels are to the pre-2009 levels unless specifically stated otherwise.  

This unit standard does not replace any other unit standard and is not replaced by any other unit standard. 

PURPOSE OF THE UNIT STANDARD 
This Unit Standard will enable learners to conduct demand forecasting and to develop supply and capacity plans to meet demand.

A learner credited with this Unit Standard will be able to:
  • Analyse the concept of demand.
  • Measure production capacity and forecast capacity demand.
  • Develop supply and capacity plans.
  • Analyse the key elements of forecasting.
  • Conduct demand forecasting.
  • Evaluate and control forecasts. 

  • LEARNING ASSUMED TO BE IN PLACE AND RECOGNITION OF PRIOR LEARNING 
  • Communication at NQF Level 4.
  • The execution of supervisory tasks.
  • Mathematical Literacy at NQF Level 4.
  • Quantitative Techniques at NQF 5 Level. 

  • UNIT STANDARD RANGE 
    The applied competence expressed in this standard covers the knowledge and understanding of:
  • The sources of demand and the impact of changing demand on the Supply Chain.
  • Various capacity planning techniques and models.
  • Practical ways of forecasting capacity demand.
  • A range of strategies to change capacity to meet the forecasted demand.
  • The fundamental principles of forecasting.
  • The need for effective forecasting.
  • A range of quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques. 

  • Specific Outcomes and Assessment Criteria: 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 1 
    Analyse the concept of demand. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    The concept of demand is analysed to determine specific capacity and supply chain management requirements. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    The link between demand and the marketing plan is analysed to determine the impact on the supply chain environment. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    A marketing plan is interpreted in order to translate it into supply needs. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    The relationships between demand, supply and capacity are analysed to forecast rate of productivity. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    Recommendations are made on how to adapt an existing distribution network to deal with changes in demand. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 2 
    Measure production capacity and forecast capacity demand. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    Key activities are undertaken to do capacity planning. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    A forecast is made on capacity demand through the utilisation of ways to change capacity. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    Different ways are implemented to accommodate long range capacity changes. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    Different ways are implemented to change capacity. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    The relevance of the queuing theory is analysed and discussed to reflect its influence on measuring production capacity and forecasting capacity demand. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 6 
    The implications of over/under capacity are identified and evaluated for short, medium and long term. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 7 
    Alternatives are identified and evaluated to reduce the negative impacts of over/under capacity on the supply chain. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 8 
    Recommendations are made on the most appropriate actions based on the demand, capacity outlook matrix. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 3 
    Develop supply and capacity plans. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    Supply and capacity plans are developed to reflect the implications of economies of scale. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    Plans include the calculations and graphic illustrations of economies of scale information. 
    ASSESSMENT CRITERION RANGE 
    Economies of scale information include but not limited to aggregate capacity utilisation, economies and diseconomies of scale and increases in incremental facility capacity.
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    Economies of scale information are interpreted in terms of its impact on capacity planning. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    Capacity planning decisions are analysed in the development of a capacity decision tree. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    Distinguishing features of alternative capacity planning strategies are identified and analysed to determine their usefulness in the development of plans. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 6 
    Appropriate capacity planning strategies are selected for particular products/process designs and forecasted demand. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 4 
    Analyse the key elements of forecasting. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    The elements of good forecasts are analysed to determine their influence on the steps in the forecasting process. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    The implications of disregarding the elements are evaluated to determine the impact of this on forecasting. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    The need for accurate forecasting is assessed to optimise supply chain management. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    The basic features common to all forecasts are examined to ensure consistency. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    The steps in the forecasting process are evaluated to optimise supply chain utilisation. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 6 
    The approaches to forecasting are assessed to reflect how forecasting is linked to scenario planning. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 5 
    Conduct demand forecasting. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    Qualitative forecasting techniques are used in accordance with their advantages and disadvantages for the forecasting process. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    A range of quantitative and qualitative approaches to forecasting are implemented to ensure near-accuracy of demand. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    The workings of forecasts based on judgement and opinion are explained with examples. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    Forecasts are based on time series data to determine demand based on known past trends. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    Forecasts are conducted making use of na´ve methods. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 6 
    Different techniques are used are used in conducting forecasts. 
    ASSESSMENT CRITERION RANGE 
    Different techniques include not limited to Averaging techniques, trends and seasonal techniques, basic associative forecasting techniques.
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 7 
    Regression analysis is undertaken in order to determine and solve typical problems related to the accuracy of forecasts. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 8 
    Demand forecasts conducted include calculations and graphic illustrations of analysis information. 
    ASSESSMENT CRITERION RANGE 
    Analysis information include but not limited to moving averages, weighted moving averages and exponent smoothing, trends and seasonality techniques.
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 9 
    Computer based models are used for quantitative forecasting. 

    SPECIFIC OUTCOME 6 
    Evaluate and control forecasts. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERIA
     

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 1 
    The way in which forecast techniques have been selected is evaluated to determine relevance and appropriateness. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 2 
    Ways in which forecasts are evaluated and controlled are identified and assessed to assist with the selection of a method. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 3 
    Evaluation criteria for a successful forecast are determined and selected to facilitate the evaluation process. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 4 
    Forecasts are evaluated against selected criteria. 

    ASSESSMENT CRITERION 5 
    Recommendations are made for improvements to forecasting process and method. 


    UNIT STANDARD ACCREDITATION AND MODERATION OPTIONS 
  • Any institution offering learning that will enable achievement of this Unit Standard must be accredited by the relevant ETQA.
  • Moderation of assessment will be overseen by the relevant ETQA at its discretion.
  • Moderation should encompass achievement of competence described in both individual Unit Standards as well as the integrated competence described in the Qualification. 

  • UNIT STANDARD ESSENTIAL EMBEDDED KNOWLEDGE 
  • The impact of volume, region, product mix, destination, selling units, product changes, new product lines, phased out products on the optimisation of distribution.
  • The key components of a marketing plan.
  • What is meant by production capacity.
  • The concept of sustainable practical capacity.
  • How to calculate output rate capacity.
  • How to calculate the aggregate unit of capacity.
  • What is meant by the input rate capacity.
  • What is meant by capacity utilisation percentages. 

  • UNIT STANDARD DEVELOPMENTAL OUTCOME 
    N/A 

    UNIT STANDARD LINKAGES 
    N/A 


    Critical Cross-field Outcomes (CCFO): 

    UNIT STANDARD CCFO IDENTIFYING 
    Identifying and solving problems in which responses display that responsible decisions using critical and creative thinking have been made when:
  • Utilise results/outcomes from forecasting to plan and integrate resource requirements.
  • Recognise and solve problems associated with the imbalances between supply and demand by adjusting the required operational and distribution capacities. 

  • UNIT STANDARD CCFO WORKING 
    Working effectively with others as a member of a team, group, organisation, and community during:
  • Consideration of all criteria for forecasting. 

  • UNIT STANDARD CCFO ORGANISING 
    Organising and managing oneself and one's activities responsibly and effectively through:
  • Aligning forecasts to time series events. 

  • UNIT STANDARD CCFO COLLECTING 
    Collecting, analysing, organising and critically evaluating information when:
  • Source analyse quantitative and qualitative information in order to forecast demand.
  • Collect, analyse and critically evaluate information related to the forecasted demand and supply and the reliability of the supply chain processes. 

  • UNIT STANDARD CCFO COMMUNICATING 
    Communicating effectively using visual, mathematical and/or language skills in the modes of oral and/or written persuasion when:
  • Presenting forecasts to management teams. 

  • UNIT STANDARD CCFO SCIENCE 
    Using science, technology and indigenous knowledge effectively and critically, showing responsibility towards the environment and health of others through:
  • Use software and technology to facilitate decision making. 

  • UNIT STANDARD CCFO DEMONSTRATING 
    Demonstrating an understanding of the world as a set of related systems by recognising that problem-solving contexts do not exist in isolation when:
  • Explain the impact of demand planning and alignment on relationships between supply chain stakeholders. 

  • UNIT STANDARD ASSESSOR CRITERIA 
    N/A 

    REREGISTRATION HISTORY 
    As per the SAQA Board decision/s at that time, this unit standard was Reregistered in 2012; 2015. 

    UNIT STANDARD NOTES 
    N/A 

    QUALIFICATIONS UTILISING THIS UNIT STANDARD: 
      ID QUALIFICATION TITLE PRE-2009 NQF LEVEL NQF LEVEL STATUS END DATE PRIMARY OR DELEGATED QA FUNCTIONARY
    Elective  79886   National Certificate: Business Advising  Level 5  NQF Level 05  Reregistered  2023-06-30  SERVICES 
    Elective  74149   National Certificate: Supply Chain Management  Level 5  NQF Level 05  Reregistered  2023-06-30  TETA 


    PROVIDERS CURRENTLY ACCREDITED TO OFFER THIS UNIT STANDARD: 
    This information shows the current accreditations (i.e. those not past their accreditation end dates), and is the most complete record available to SAQA as of today. Some Primary or Delegated Quality Assurance Functionaries have a lag in their recording systems for provider accreditation, in turn leading to a lag in notifying SAQA of all the providers that they have accredited to offer qualifications and unit standards, as well as any extensions to accreditation end dates. The relevant Primary or Delegated Quality Assurance Functionary should be notified if a record appears to be missing from here.
     
    1. Aldabri 106 Institute for Quality Pty Ltd 
    2. BPL Academy 
    3. Centre for Logistics Excellence (Pty) Ltd 
    4. College of Production Technology 
    5. COMMERCE EDGE SOUTH AFRICA PTY LTD 
    6. Global Maritime Legal Solutions Pty Ltd 
    7. Innovative Shared Services 
    8. Makwedeng Training 
    9. Metro Minds 
    10. School of Shipping 
    11. Skills Development Specialists 
    12. Y2K College 



    All qualifications and part qualifications registered on the National Qualifications Framework are public property. Thus the only payment that can be made for them is for service and reproduction. It is illegal to sell this material for profit. If the material is reproduced or quoted, the South African Qualifications Authority (SAQA) should be acknowledged as the source.